When Ken Miyagishima, Democrat turned Independent, ended his campaign for governor recently and endorsed Republican Gregg Hull. A couple of days later Hull announced that polling conducted for his campaign found that the race for governor is a dead heat. Political junkies took notice.
The mid-July poll of 400 likely voters showed support for Democrat Deb Haaland at 46% and Hull at 45%, according to the Santa Fe New Mexican – a statistical tie. The margin of error was 4.9 percentage points.
“Gregg Hull is currently a more likeable candidate for governor over the polarizing Deb Haaland,” wrote survey research firm McLaughlin & Associates in a polling memo. “With the right resources, it’s clear that Gregg Hull can win the election.”
On the other hand, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan political newsletter published by the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, recently changed its rating of New Mexico’s contest from “Likely Democratic” to “Safe Democratic.” Why? Democrats were “unified behind a nominee enjoying a fundraising edge,” but Republicans had chosen “a credible but financially and organizationally overmatched candidate.”
The newsletter said Miyagishima’s endorsement may provide a “modest boost” but “it’s not clear how many votes this endorsement will move.” And it noted “internal dysfunction” in the Republican Party of New Mexico. That’s a nice way of saying the Republicans here have imploded. The court ordered its chair to step down, the party’s central committee is unable to muster the votes to even meet to choose a new one, and its now-former treasurer is accused in a car crash that killed a man.
I question the assumption of Democratic unity behind Haaland.
A Dem diehard and former elected official told me: “I got an email from Deb’s campaign early on saying, wouldn’t it be cool to have a Native American governor. Is that really the value proposition you want to offer? What ideas do you have for improving the state?” We still don’t have a clear answer. That and Haaland’s avoidance of debates and public comment leave a lot of Democrats cold. Could their ambivalence be turned into votes for Hull?
That’s where Miyagishima might come in. Both men were the longest-serving mayors of their cities – second-largest Las Cruces for Miyagishima and third-largest Rio Rancho for Hull.
I had great hopes for Miyagishima as spokesman for what I call the Sensible Center, but after leaving the Democratic primary he couldn’t meet the state’s high threshold of petition signatures for Independents.
In his gutsy endorsement Miyagishima said, “I have known Mayor Hull for almost 12 years. He is intelligent, hardworking and a man of integrity.” He promised to rally support for Hull in southern New Mexico.
Hull responded: “We both know what it means to lead a city, balance a budget, work with people from every background, and be held accountable for real results.” Potholes, he said, are not Republican or Democratic.
What’s the endorsement’s impact?
Former Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Ronchetti talks about ballots. “I think the vast majority of Miyagishima’s votes would have been disaffected Democrats,” he said on his podcast. “By being in the race, he would have syphoned off votes for Haaland.”
Ronchetti adds that because Las Cruces is in the El Paso media market, “nobody knows Gregg down there. It’s helpful that Ken endorsed him, but unless he can promote that” it won’t matter. That means buying political ads.
Which comes back to money and Haaland’s much reported 7-to-1 cash advantage.
“With the right amount of resources, he can win,” said John McLaughlin, CEO of the New York firm that did Hull’s polling. “New Mexican voters like him. He’s got a successful record as mayor.”
The poll found that 40% of respondents had a positive opinion of Hull, but 22% had never heard of him; Haaland was “unpopular,” with 42% of respondents in favor and 46% opposed.
Hull wasted no time touting the poll results to raise money. “The latest statewide poll shows our campaign begins in a statistical tie,” Hull posted on X. “But after voters learn about my record of proven leadership and results, we move into a 49% to 43% lead.”
In a fundraising email, he wrote: “This race isn’t close because New Mexicans want more of the same — it’s close because we haven’t finished telling my story yet… I need the resources to make sure they hear it — on TV, on the radio, in their mailbox, everywhere.”
In telling his story, Hull would do well to recognize the anger at Trump that’s animating Democrats and many Independents at the same time their response to Haaland is lukewarm. Potholes aren’t a bad place to begin.
Sherry Robinson is a longtime New Mexico reporter and editor. She has worked in Grants, Gallup, the Albuquerque Journal, New Mexico Business Weekly and Albuquerque Tribune. She is the author of four books. Her columns won first place in 2024 from New Mexico Press Women.
